#prediction

OpenAI quietly launched GPT-5.6 in three tiers (Sol, Terra, Luna) restricted to trusted partners, while Semgrep reported that GLM 5.2 outperforms Claude on its internal cybersecurity benchmarks. Portugal's National Health Service contracted Sword Health to deliver AI-assisted physical therapy nationwide, the first country-scale deployment of its kind. Edison Scientific and Population Health Partners announced a deal to use AI agents for end-to-end drug discovery. Patrick Boyle assessed Brexit's 10-year economic toll, and Noah Smith examined whether AI will push companies toward more or less outsourcing.

Anthropic accused Alibaba of illicitly extracting Claude's model capabilities, drawing 829 Hacker News comments and raising fresh questions about AI IP enforcement. OpenAI unveiled Jalapeño, its first custom inference chip built with Broadcom, a move that reshapes its dependency on Nvidia. GLM-5.2 crossed a threshold Nathan Lambert called the step change for open agents. Google introduced computer use in Gemini 3.5 Flash, and U.S. health spending rose 7.3% in 2025, driven by GLP-1 drug adoption and higher care utilization. A bipartisan bill would expand methadone access by letting physicians prescribe it outside specialty clinics.

Sebastian Raschka published a comprehensive 2025 LLM review covering DeepSeek R1, RLVR, inference-time scaling, and 2026 predictions, while Simon Willison released his annual year-in-LLMs retrospective. On the pharma front, NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya confirmed that DEI-related grants restored under a court order will not be renewed in 2026, even as NIH began reviewing thousands of delayed proposals and funded 135 on the first day. Novo Nordisk priced its newly approved Wegovy pill below Eli Lilly's competing obesity drug in a direct-to-consumer push. On the economy side, researchers across 16 countries found that the post-1980 labor share decline is driven by the composition of capital, not its quantity, and building more structures may reverse it.